The End of the Creator Economy

No, YouTube, I don't want to watch any more videos of randos giving their opinions on movies. So. The creator economy. Did it peak that fast? I was singing its praises (sort of) just six months ago. Was I that wrong? Meh. Not really. I think I was just early. And I'm probably early here too. I'm not saying the creator economy is over. I'm just saying this is what the beginning of the end looks like. A word of warning. This column is going to be full of reckless speculation. Also, this has nothing to do with whom I create for, mostly because I use words and it's an entirely different model, but also because if they weren't awesome, I wouldn't create for them. There. Now I can take the gloves off. Look, the creator economy has grown massively over the past few years, but here are several critical questions that need answers if the "economy" part of it is going to survive. Is the money there? Can you really, really make a million dollars as a YouTuber? Really? As a lifelong entrepreneur, I've seen these "anyone can get rich" stories play out over and over again. In fact, it's happening right now with generative AI. And in a lot of cases, there's just enough truth there for it to be true. I absolutely hate when this happens, and investors and boards use me as a BS detector quite often. Like when someone says their company is worth X and X is a very large number of dollars. But X is just a calculation based on Y that uses a value of Z and also A and B and C, all the way up to H. And H is totally made up. Fictional. No basis in reality. When you see a tech startup with a massive valuation crash and burn, it's usually because, even with a bunch of smart people sinking zillions of dollars into the venture, no one asked about H. It happens all the time in entrepreneurship, especially in front of investors and in the press. And the same kind of almost-true ballooning is happening in the creator economy right now, although it's more tacit than deliberate, and usually fueled by the creators themselves. Now, as I mentioned, I'll also tell you that I make a lot of money spitting truth grenades with funny words (see, I just ballooned myself). But I say that to say I'm not just one of those folks being all sad because the algorithm is oppressing them (yes, they mean "suppressing," but they don't know that). I'm just saying I've been on both sides of the algorithm. And I know some of you are already mentally arguing semantics about being able to make a million dollars on YouTube. So I'll change up the question ... Can just anyone make millions of dollars as a YouTuber? Well, the answer to this one is a firm, flat no. But the longer answer is sneakier because that answer is absolutely not unless lightning strikes or they get a lot of help from people with a lot of money, like venture capital or private equity money, which is most definitely happening. I know I just shattered a lot of dreams, but I need to talk about infinite smallness and the long tail. There are a handful of unbacked creators who are going to make a lot of money for a very short period of time. There are another handful who will make average money for a longer period of time. Then there's the long tail, which is infinitely long and infinitely thin when, say, charting revenue per creator for any single creation. In other words, it's hit or miss, for sure, and there is no way to predict a hit. Unless ... Is the money worth making? There are two ways to make money as a creator. Option 1 is to put a lifetime and a keg of passion into a single subject and extend the possibilities of it for millions of people in an entertaining way, while also being great in the medium in which you're working. Option 2 is to chase a bunch of algorithms and SEOs and whatever China is doing with TikTok so that your content rises to the top. The first way is incredibly difficult. The second way is incredibly difficult but is sold as easy. Search for how to make money on any creator channel and your soul will ache with the daunting volume and the sheer banality of the results. Also, there seems to be a lot of hel" offered for option 2, but these people will mostly just steal your money. For the record, those search results you just pulled up are also algorithm-driven. It becomes a game. The ones with the talent don't want to play. The ones who are playing have a different talent. And I'm not here to judge, but no one ever vibes with a creator because the content hits them in their SEO. But you have to play the game at least a little, because ... How do you get past the ad-based content problem? I said in a recent column that the only way to make a lot of money is to make even more money for someone else. Nowhere is this more true than in the creator economy. What this boils down to is that the creator economy isn't really revolutionary. It lives and dies on advertising the same way that all media that came before it did. It's just easier to access the distribution and the ad sellers now. But it's plagued by the same demons as the thing it replaced. So if you're going with option 1 above, you're likely doomed to be a starving artist. If you're going with option 2, you either produce the content that serves the most ads or you don't get paid. And before you start to say "sponsorship," or "influencer," please understand that these methods have always existed and they last died out with broadcast radio by the 1950s. I'll reference the long tail again. Matt Damon can sell the hell out of some crypto. You and I cannot. So it's starve or serve the algos or don't do it. But I know what you're thinking, you plucky and attractive creator ... How do you get past the algorithm problem? I do not know. There, I said it. It took me about three months before I had reached the end of quality YouTube. Some of you will be shocked it took that long. And it's only getting worse, because ... What comes after TikTok? Or, what happens when the next thing comes along that lowers the common denominator even further? Or, what happens when the average attention span shrinks to the point where it's not even content anymore--it's literally all shiny colors and flashing lights. Funny story. TikTok banned me because I don't conform to the seven seconds of stupid that it demands for its videos. I don't care because posting on TikTok always made me feel like I was being Uncle Cringe. I'm just saying the channels are no longer just actively promoting the lowest common denominator, they're enforcing it. Good luck, starving artists! Is the creator economy sustainable? So this is the million-dollar question, for real. But let me answer that question by asking another question. Who needs another podcast in their lives? Once the entire creator economy is saturated, and I believe we're close if not already there, where is the sustainable income for creators going to come from? This is actually what I talked about in my post six months ago, only then I was optimistic. Now, I'm not so sure. The minute someone hits the end of the algorithm, as I did after a few months, all those ad-friendly quality videos suddenly stop, as they did for me, and then the timeline is all garbage -- a never-ending infinitely thin marching line of angry opinions on movies. I actually kinda like the angry ones. It's the fawning ones I can do without. Opinions are fine, but everybody has one, and the ones that count are the ones with experience and facts behind them. Until we start to slam those factors into the algos, the creator economy will be a quagmire, no matter who is doing the backing. But I also know tech, and I know that going against the algorithm is pointless. The whole system needs to be replaced. Quality costs money, and that money has to make a lot more money for someone else before quality can matter. Until then, the lowest common denominator will always win, and when the kids get tired of TikTok's too-long seven-second videos, we'll all move to an app that's just flashing lights and bright colors. Expert Opinion By Joe Procopio, Founder, TeachingStartup.com @jproco