Thursday, September 19, 2024

4 Ways AI Will Completely Change Your Future, According to Bill Gates

Bill Gates is definitely bullish on artificial intelligence. In the first episode of his new Netflix documentary series, What's Next? The Future With Bill Gates, he asks the audience to consider not only the ways AI can eliminate jobs and spread disinformation, but also its potential to save lives, improve education, and perhaps mitigate climate change. "It's always been the holy grail that eventually computers could speak to us in natural language," the Microsoft co-founder says. "So it really was a huge surprise when in 2022 AI woke up." Although they acknowledge that AI has its downsides, Gates and executive producer Morgan Neville explore some specific ways that AI can make the world a better place, correctly pointing out that some of these benefits aren't talked about often enough. The series may not dig deeply into the very real threats AI poses in the future and even today, but it does do a good job of explaining how this new technology can be not only a source of profits but also a gain for humanity. Here are some of the ways Gates believes AI can change lives over the next few years. 1. AI is improving health care. "With AI, the greatest excitement is OK, let's take this and let's improve health," Gates says. "Using AI to accelerate health innovation can probably help us save lives." In the series, oncologists explain how an AI tool named Sybil can identify potential lung cancer sites up to six years before a human doctor can. Lung cancer is by far the deadliest cancer because it's very common and often isn't found until it's too late. But with early detection, the five-year survival rate can go from 10 percent to 70 percent, according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where Sibyl was developed. Besides earlier cancer detection, AI can solve a more mundane problem. "Doctors are in short supply even in rich countries that spend so much," Gates says. "But as you move into poor countries, most people never get to meet a doctor their entire life." With this issue in mind, Sun Microsystems co-founder and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla says during a meeting with Gates that it's his dream to get an app approved as a primary care physician within the next few years. "We should think if there's a way to do that," Gates agrees. 2. AI is changing education. At Khan Academy, an educational nonprofit whose goal is to help secondary school teachers, software named Khanmigo helps students improve their essays. "Who would prefer to use Khanmigo than stand in line waiting for me to help you?" teacher Rasha Barakat asks students at the Khan Lab School in Mountain View, California. Some of the students aren't sure, but the AI does seem to provide them with useful suggestions. Of course, AI is famously capable of writing those essays from beginning to end, creating a challenge for many educators. "ChatGPT can write an essay for you, and if students are doing that, they're cheating," Khan says. "But there's a spectrum of activities here. How do we let students do their work independently, but do it in a way that the AI isn't doing it for them, but it's supported by the AI?" As the series acknowledges, questions like these still lack answers. On the other hand, Gates believes AI has the potential to act as a tutor for every child in Africa. It's hard to see that as a bad thing. 3. AI can provide companionship. The 2013 film Her gave viewers a sense of how easy it could be to form an emotional attachment with AI. I know people today who are using ChatGPT and other AI software as an informal therapist, and I bet you do too. As the series notes, the worldwide supply of human therapists is far from enough to deal with the current level of mental health needs. So perhaps using AI for therapy or even companionship makes sense. The series features Eugenia Kuyda, a data scientist who used text messages from her best friend to create a chatbot version of him after his death in a car accident. She went on to found Replika, which lets users create their own "replikas," a customized AI friend who is "always here to listen and talk," and "always on your side." There's no denying the appeal of AI-created companionship. But can it, and should it, replace real human interaction? And does it improve or undermine relationships with other humans? "Pretty fast, we saw that people started developing romantic relationships and falling in love with their AIs," she says. "We have to think about the worst-case scenarios now. Because in a way, this technology is more powerful than social media. And we sort of already dropped the ball there." 4. AI could leave humans wondering about our purpose. Will AI eliminate jobs by replacing human employees? Of course it will. In a survey of both employers and employees last year about their hopes and predictions for AI, 16 percent of employers said one benefit of the technology was that it would allow them to reduce head count. Another 31 percent said they thought it would increase their employees' efficiency, which suggests that if AI adoption doesn't lead to layoffs, employers believe it can save them from hiring additional employees. Beyond that, there's the more complex question of what exactly humans are here to do. The episode is punctuated with bits of a conversation between Gates and James Cameron, who directed The Terminator and Terminator 2 (as well as Titanic). Though Cameron declares himself an AI skeptic, he says he can happily put his faith in the idea of AI finding early-stage diseases before human doctors can. "But I think, ultimately, where this is going, as we take people out of the loop, what are we replacing their sense of purpose and meaning with?" Gates has no good answer to that question. "Even I'm kind of scratching my head, because the idea that I ever say to the AI, 'Hey, I'm working hard on malaria,' and it says, 'Oh, I'll take care of that, you just go play pickle ball'--my sense of purpose will definitely be damaged." As AI continues to improve, a lot of us might wind up feeling that way. Expert Opinion By Minda Zetlin, Author of 'Career Self-Care: Find Your Happiness, Success, and Fulfillment at Work' @MindaZetlin

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