The Quantum Revolution Is Coming. First, the Industry Has to Survive This Crucial Phase

Quantum computing could be even more revolutionary than artificial intelligence. The calculation speeds and potential benefits of the technology have the potential to bring about everything from quicker discovery of drug treatments for disease, to more accurate climate modeling, to smoother shipping logistics. The advances in the past year have been substantial, but a new paper from the University of Chicago warns quantum evangelists that as impressive as that progress has been, there’s still a long way to go. While the paper says quantum is nearing the point of practical use (taking it beyond controlled experiments in the laboratory), it won’t be running at full throttle for a while. First, there need to be significant advances in materials science and fabrication, the authors said, with an emphasis on wiring and signal delivery. “We are in an equivalent of the early transistor age, and hardware breakthroughs are required in multiple arenas to reach the performance necessary for the envisioned applications,” the authors wrote. To put that into context: Think of the speed and capabilities of today’s computers. For just $4,000, people can buy a supercomputer that fits on their desktop. Compare that to the computers of the early- to mid-1950s. That’s where quantum stands today in its evolution, the paper’s authors argue. That doesn’t mean the technology is disappointing, by any means. Computers in the 50s, to continue the analogy, were used to break codes, automate payroll and inventory management systems and handle the mathematical models for everything from weather forecasting to nuclear research. “While semiconductor chips in the 1970s were TLR-9 [Technology Readiness Level 9, indicating a technology is proven and successfully operating] for that time, they could do very little compared with today’s advanced integrated circuits,” William D. Oliver, coauthor of the paper and a professor of physics, electrical engineering, and computer science at MIT, said in a statement. “Similarly, a high TRL for quantum technologies today does not indicate that the end goal has been achieved, nor does it indicate that the science is done and only engineering remains.” The hurdles quantum faces are tied into the qubits it uses. While a more traditional computer thinks in ones and zeroes, a qubit can be a one, zero, or both at the same time. That technology lets quantum computers process massive amounts of data in parallel, solving complex simulation and optimization problems at speeds not possible with today’s computers. Most platforms today rely on individual control lines for each qubit, but quantum systems can contain thousands, or even millions, of qubits, which makes wiring impractical. That same issue raises problems with power management and temperature control. Many quantum systems today depend on cryogenic equipment or high-power lasers, so simply making a bigger version of the machine won’t work. The paper’s authors say quantum is likely to follow an evolutionary path that’s on par with the current computer industry. Breakthroughs will be necessary, and quantum companies will need to focus on a top-down system design and close collaboration. Failing to work together could fragment the industry and slow its growth—and create some unrealistic expectations among both insiders and the general public. “Patience has been a key element in many landmark developments and points to the importance of tempering timeline expectations in quantum technologies,” the authors wrote. The paper’s warning about the timeline to quantum reaching its real potential comes amid a mounting wave of excitement about the technology. Bank of America analysts, in a note to investors last year, compared the rising technology to man’s discovery of fire. “This could be the biggest revolution for humanity since discovering fire,” the financial institution wrote. “A technology that can perform endless complex calculations in zero-time, warp-speeding human knowledge and development.” Tech giants and startups alike are working hard on quantum systems. Google has named its device Willow; IBM is also working on one, as is Amazon. And startups like Universal Quantum and PsiQuantum Corp. are also jockeying to be players in the quantum field. Intel has developed a silicon quantum chip for researchers and Microsoft is focusing on building practical quantum computers. Despite that, it could be 10 years or more before a quantum computer suitable for commercial applications makes its debut. Companies building prototype quantum computers (including Google) say they don’t expect to deliver a useful quantum computer until the end of the decade. BY CHRIS MORRIS @MORRISATLARGE