SHARING TOO MUCH DATA WITH EVERYBODY DOESN'T HELP ANYBODY

I'm afraid that the latest vogue in information sharing-- radical transparency, where everyone allegedly knows everything about what's going on in your business-- is one of those virtuous endeavors that starts out with the best of intentions and fairly quickly ends up in tears and a swamp of confusion. It's just the latest instance of the ancient caution-- "be careful what you wish for" -- but it's also something that every business, especially new ones, needs to address before things get completely out of hand, with the inmates demanding to run the entire asylum. Watching Netflix and a host of other companies try to drag back the drawbridge, rewrite their corporate philosophies, and explain why not everybody in the company any longer needs to get a "say" in everything is a case in point. Asking your engineers about art direction is like inviting a turkey to Thanksgiving dinner.

But the issue is much broader than simply one of conflicting politics, busybodies, and concerns about transphobia and cancel culture. To do their own jobs well, there's no question that your team needs the proper desire, direction, and data. This is a critical component of both innovation and iteration, which are the keys to progress. But sharing critical and sensitive information isn't an invitation to a free-for-all. People butting in and adding their two cents to the way that everyone else is doing their jobs is a formula for failure and chaos. The fact that they're just trying to help might be an explanation, but it's no excuse. The key is to give your people the resources they need and the tools to track how they're doing and then to get out of their way as long as they stay in their own lanes. If they don't, your job -- among a million others -- is to run interference and back off the butt-in-skis.

To help your folks do their jobs and do their best, there's nothing more essential than timely and relevant metrics. As management guru Peter Drucker said many years ago, you can't manage what you can't measure and that's still largely true. Even more to the point, it's clear that what gets measured is what gets done and, in true learning organizations, what gets measured and modified appropriately gets better over time. Constant iteration and successive approximation mean you're always improving.

But, as with everything else in life, too much of a good thing can simply be too much for an organization to ingest and digest effectively. Bean counting, in and of itself, is never good for business.  If you can't swiftly and successfully integrate the data you're assembling, it's just make-work. And frankly, even in today's hyper-technical world, there are plenty of important but intangible concerns and considerations that you still can't simply measure.

Unfortunately, when there's constant pressure for results and "accountability," there's often a tendency to invent and massage the facts and figures so that the numbers add up. In far too many businesses, a slavish allegiance to budgets and projections and a fetish with false precision and made-up metrics can lead to disaster. When the measurement and the process itself become the goal, you can easily lose sight of the real objectives. If you insist on overdoing it, the very act of measurement will alter whatever it is that you're trying to measure and, most often, not in a good way.

Examples of this kind of make-believe management reporting abound in marketing. While direct mail marketing is completely quantifiable, it's clear that the impact and results of most brand marketing is, at best, a touchy-feely guess. In areas like these the best plan isn't even precision guesswork; it's fencing in the parameters within reason-- taking your best shot at a realistic estimate and moving on. After the fact, when you have some actual numbers and results, you can fine tune your approach and strategy.

Ultimately, the real job is pretty simple. You need to decide who really needs to get what kind of information to do their best work and then make sure they get what they need. Spoiler alert: practically no one in the entire company needs to know what everyone else earns. Compensation issues, competitive comparisons, and constant complaints are the personnel problems that have sunk more startups than just about any other matter. Whatever the alleged benefit might be of widely sharing sensitive and highly personal material like pay or performance rankings, I assure you that the pain is never worth the hoped-for gain.  

So, how do you determine who really needs to know what? Four simple questions.

1) Is the requested information available and readily accessible?

As noted above, for example, impact and effectiveness data for brand marketing is easy to come by, but it's mostly the product of wishful thinking. Call it "anecdata," an intoxicating cocktail of facts and factoids. While it may make people feel better, the data adds little to their future performance or results. Understand, too, that the right data may inform ongoing decision-making, but it's not going to ultimately make the correct choices for your people. The final call and the responsibility are theirs; using the data as a crutch for their decisions is like the drunk using a lamppost for support rather than illumination.

2) Do they need the specific requested information to better do their jobs?

Even if it's good information, you still need to know the difference between nice (or interesting) to have and need to have. Everyone likes to keep score. Showrunners constantly complain that the streaming services don't tell them how their shows are performing until the decision to renew comes up. But telling them after production is complete about some random and relative numbers has nothing to do with the progress, quality or success of the next show they're working on. It's more likely to create anxiety and anger rather than any changed or improved behavior.

3) Can and will the team members use it effectively if it's provided in a timely fashion?

Here again, the writers and teams that assemble 8-to -12 shows for Netflix or Hulu typically deliver the finished series before even the first episode or three-pack airs. So, telling them how specific episodes performed may make them feel better or worse, but it's not information they can use to revise their completed work. Makers in Hollywood are still treated mainly like mushrooms and management sees no reason to think about changing the rules.

4) Can the data be assembled and provided at a reasonable cost?

Good, clean data isn't cheap. It's essential to determine whether the likely benefits will outweigh the costs before you start down the path because--much like rabbits --both the demand and the dimensions of the undertaking will multiply over a relatively short timeframe since the desire for more and better guidance is perpetually progressive and relatively insatiable. 

Nielsen used to track home TV viewership and even as the only game in town its reports were accepted by the industry, reasonably priced, and fairly valued for the actual quality of the guidance they provided. But then the world changed in two critical ways:  (1) a scrappy new competitor, Comscore entered the market with more advanced and precise measurement technology across multiple media delivery platforms; and (2) the media marketplace fragmented and exploded with viewership in and out of home  on cable, digital, desktop, and mobile delivery systems.  

Today, there are twice as many smart phones in the average American home as TV sets and each one constantly consumes media. Both the challenges of capturing accurate usage and viewership data across an ever-expanding spectrum and the users' costs of acquiring such data continue to grow exponentially.

Every use case in every industry is going to have different data needs that will also change regularly, but never diminish. No one is likely to get the parameters exactly right and make the best choices on a consistent basis, but the critical conversations and the time-sensitive decisions are unavoidable and imminent.

All we know for absolutely certain is that data is the oil of the digital age and that the volume of the data being created and aggregated will grow exponentially forever. Every organization will need to develop strategies and firm but flexible guidelines for its information policies.

It's important to have data, but it's infinitely more important to know how to employ and interpret it. Having more data is not the same as having better information, even if your people want it all.

SIX EXCITING START UP TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH

If 2021 was the year of economic recovery — thanks to optimism fueled by Covid-19 vaccines — 2022 has fast shown how fragile that recovery is. Geopolitical tensions are continuing to influence markets, with gas prices in Europe surging more than 30 percent after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, new pandemic-related shutdowns in China (and the China-U.S. trade war) are continuing to rock global supply chains. And the effects of climate change remain a persistent threat.

All of these challenges require constant innovation — new technology to help companies automate warehouses, for example, or help countries reach ambitious net zero emissions goals. Which technologies are investors betting on as the next most essential (and exciting) ones? Here are six to watch. 

Green energy

Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 — as called for in the 2015 Paris Agreement — will require $9.2 trillion in annual average spending on physical assets, according to a new McKinsey report. Of that, 20 percent will be developing renewable energy capacity (solar plants, wind farms) and upgrading transmission and distribution networks, (Another 40 percent will be electric vehicles and charging infrastructure — see “battery technology.”)

Costs for the two fastest-growing types of renewable energy — solar and wind — have dropped more than 80 percent since 2010. That’s thanks to industry competition (in the case of solar) and longer blades that allow for increased energy output (wind).

But Greenbacker Development Opportunities Fund, which invests in sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy technologies, has recently focused on small hydroelectric power generation. “It’s a nice hedge, because the whole world is building solar,” said Benjamin Baker, managing director of the fund. “They’re all sad when it’s raining, but we’re happy to applaud a nice rainy winter.”

GDEV this year announced an investment in Noria Energy, a California solar developer whose projects include so-called floatovoltaics, or floating solar farms, where photovoltaic panels bob above bodies of water. Floating solar projects don’t require valuable land area, and the panels experience a cooling effect from the water beneath, preventing them from overheating and leading to greater energy generation.

Bioplastics 

Customer demand for greener products has reshaped the plastics industry, with one of the fastest growing sectors being bioplastics. As the name suggests, bioplastics are ones that are either biodegradable, bio-based (made from a renewable resource such as corn or sugar cane), or both.

Because biodegradable plastic still ends up as smaller pieces, it takes decades before the pieces disappear from nature, plus most biodegradable or compostable packaging requires special industrial facilities for processing. Enter startups replacing single-use plastics with fiber-based sustainable products, from clothing to cardboard, that can decompose in your backyard or the ocean. 

With fiber-based innovations, “we see the potential to truly address the root cause of the packaging pollution problem, as well as opportunities to disrupt other industries,” says Otilia Barbuta, a senior associate at HP Tech Ventures.

To that end, HP is partnering with European startup accelerator program TechFounders to support three companies in the molded fiber space. (In February, HP announced it had acquired Choose Packaging, inventor of the only commercially available zero-plastic paper bottle in the world. HP’s 3D printed Molded Fiber Tooling Solution — which produces the tooling to the customer’s required design — will help Choose Packaging scale up production.)

Simplifyber is changing the way clothing is made, using a cellulose-based material and creating a simplified manufacturing process. GrowPack is using corn husks to create packaging, starting with replacing the six-pack ring with its bioRing solution. And Plannalto is using sugarcane bagasse (the fibrous juice removed in sugar cane milling) as alternative material sources to replace typical wood material and is developing new types of applications with it. 

Barbuta says HP Tech Ventures is particularly excited about fiber-based innovations because of their ability to impact other industries, such as construction (where fiber-based materials could form panels or tiles) and agriculture (where farmers may be able to commercialize their agricultural residue and unused feedstock.)

Artificial intelligence

The pandemic brought new attention to artificial intelligence, as AI algorithms helped scientists quickly analyze the genetic information of SARS-CoV-2. It’s also helped scientists understand how fast the virus mutates, as well as develop and test vaccines. 

But AI’s reach stretches far beyond public health. According to a study by PwC, 52 percent of companies accelerated their AI adoption plans because of the Covid crisis, while 86 percent say that AI is becoming a “mainstream technology” at their company. According to Ark Invest’s 2022 Big Ideas report, the market capitalization of AI hardware and software companies could scale quickly, increasing from $2.5 trillion in 2021 to $87 trillion by 2030.

“We’re excited about AI as an investment area as it promises to unlock so much potential in terms of saving time, money as well as more tailored experiences based on specific circumstances,” says Angelo Del Priore, a partner at HP Tech Ventures, “whether that’s for when to proactively service a production line or say an HP printer or PC, to what product to highlight to a specific customer.”

Del Priore says he’s particularly excited about data science tools, which can help make up for the shortage of data scientists by helping people without that background make use of the latest AI capabilities. He’s also interested in AI applications like the cashier-less checkout company AiFi, which recently raised $65 million in its Series B (which included HP.) The company currently has 40 stores, including a 6,000-sq-foot Aldi shoe store in London.

Battery technology

The past two years have been banner ones for the electric vehicle market, with global sales exceeding pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2020, according to a McKinsey report. With this demand — and the forecast that there could be 26 million electric cars in the US by 2030 — comes a race to build a better battery. What chemistry will produce a battery that’s cheaper, denser, lighter and more powerful? Also crucial: The cycling capacity, or how many times the battery can be discharged and recharged. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s proposal to spend billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and clean energy only raises the stakes.

Major carmakers and equipment manufacturers — including General Motors, Kia Motors, Honda, and Volkswagen — have all raced to make bets, helping to pour $3.6 billion (yes, billion) into battery startups in 2021, according to Crunchbase. Things won’t be slowing down any time soon: Recently Bloomberg reported that Ford is planning additional investments of up to $20 billion into electric vehicles over the next five to 10 years.

But already this year three deals have raised nearly $290 million, with Factorial Energy in Woburn, Mass., raising $200 million alone in a round led by Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis. Factorial Energy makes so-called solid state batteries (SSBs), which have no flammable liquid electrolytes (like traditional lithium ion batteries). Proponents say solid state batteries are safer; they’re also generally more compact, have a longer battery life, and recharge more quickly. Industrial-grade 3D printers can already produce SSBs at scale.

Decentralized finance

Decentralized finance is an emerging digital financial infrastructure that doesn’t rely on banks or brokers to make decisions or approve transactions — and so doesn’t charge the same fees and foreign exchange rates traditional banking providers always have. (Some also say it is essential to the success of the metaverse, where, among other things, it can facilitate peer-to-peer transactions.)

This new wave of financial services innovation is a blockchain-based ecosystem, meaning that all computers on a network hold a copy of the history of transactions, and no single one of them can alter that ledger. DeFi, as it’s called, operates through computer code that acts as a digital agreement between two parties. Because the blockchain processes these smart contracts, they can be sent automatically without a third party. Enter a universe of faster, cheaper financial services, including sending money anywhere in the world, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer borrowing and lending, and buying insurance.

DeFi also offers new hope for sustainable development: There’s already a platform where you can invest in high-yield green bonds. Plus decentralized crop insurance is protecting small-scale farmers against climate risks, automating the traditionally lengthy claims process and offering prompt payments so farmers can bounce back from crop disasters such as droughts. 

Adrian Mendoza, co-founder of Mendoza Ventures in Boston, which invests in AI and fintech, thinks this is DeFi’s moment because the excitement over cryptocurrency has made it easier to talk about DeFi’s benefits.

“There is also now a mature ecosystem of fintechs that are building kits of parts to create new financial models, mobile apps and experiences,” he says. “It’s these same kits of parts that are lowering the barrier for entry for entrepreneurs.”

Robotics

E-commerce companies are already big into robots for warehouse automation and last-mile delivery — Amazon alone has more than 350,000 autonomous robots working in its fulfillment centers. But robots are expected to become increasingly important across a variety of industries in 2022, thanks to rising labor costs and disrupted supply chains, according to Jay Jacobs, senior vice president and head of research and strategy for Global X, which has more than $40 billion in managed assets. 

Jacobs told CNBC “it behooves many investors to be early on [robotics] as we see it accelerate in the coming year.” A recent robotics report from private-capital data company Pitchbook, projects that the global robotics market will grow to $45.5 billion in 2022, up from $35.7 billion in 2021.

Big deals this year include Bear Robotics, which raised $81 million in March 2022 to accelerate the use of autonomous robots in the hospitality and service industry. The Redwood City, California-based startup already has shipped more than 5,000 of its Servi food service robots, which carry food and drink between kitchen and tables and can bus dirty dishes from tables back to the kitchen. 

 

THREE MARKETING LESSONS FROM GEN-Z's FAVORITE BRANDS

As the first generation that's fully digitally native, Gen-Zers -- those born between 1996 to 2012 -- take the center stage in online shopping. Gen-Z's spending power has reached $360 billion. And over 55 percent of those in the cohort, between 18 and 24 years old, has shopped online last month, according to a May survey of 1,117 individuals. That survey of U.S. Gen-Zers is from the advertising design automation platform Creatopy.

So what do you need to know about this tech-savvy generation? Chiefly, they hold brands to very high standards. According to the report, e-commerce platform Amazon, sports brand Nike, and fashion retailer Shein take the lead as Gen-Z's top choices in terms of brands. Here are reasons why these brands attract Gen-Z shoppers.

1. Prioritize speed and efficiency

Gen-Z shoppers are born in a fast-paced world -- so get on board. "Amazon appeals to these young consumers by offering a large variety of products available to order from the same website, with short delivery times," Creatopy's VP of Marketing Bogdan Carlescu tells Inc. "They expect technology to make their lives easier and their shopping experience more convenient."

In addition, Gen-Z has a shorter attention span, which means, "If the same ad is repeatedly targeted at the same users, it will create more apathy toward your product and brand than anything else," says Truman Rae, account manager of consultancy agency that focuses on Gen-Z marketing strategies NinetyEighth.

2. Advocate for social change

Carlescu explains that Nike landed at the top because it has been advocating for social change and taking a stand on various issues, which members of Gen-Z deeply care about. Carlescu adds that the iconic Colin Kaepernick campaign is just one example of such actions. Gen-Z prefers brands that are inspiring and not afraid to get involved in issues that impact society.

"This is the generation that believes companies have a role in improving society, so you need to show them you're doing more than just selling a product," says Carlescu. "However, the messaging that you're putting forward has to match your company's beliefs and values. Gen-Z will not accept performative actions and will call you out if you try to monetize on social issues."

3. Skip the overly polished marketing messages

Shein manages to capture Gen-Z not only with their affordable prices but also with their presence on social media -- YouTube, Instagram, TikTok -- and collaborations with various influencers.

"Gen-Z wants authenticity, brands that speak -- not mimic -- their language, especially when it comes to marketing on social media," Creatopy's digital media manager Laura Trif tells Inc. "To avoid awkward interactions, brands need to partner with members of the Gen-Z community, nano- and micro-influencers that are closer to their followers, not only with celebrities and models. What Gen-Z wants to see on social media is relatable content, content that looks and feels spontaneous and raw, rather than extremely polished."

Founder of Gen-Z-led social media agency the Z Link, Erifili Gounari, agrees that brands should not take themselves too seriously or try too hard on social media. Gounari advises brands to engage with Gen-Z users on the app in a fun and casual way and take a community-driven approach to the app. Gounari adds that user-generated content beats traditional advertising in terms of brand engagement.

WHAT IS ........XR?

According to a certain thirtysomething tech billionaire, it’s only a matter of time before we’ve all relocated to a digital multiverse where we’ll float around as legless Playmobil figures. Whether or not he’s right, the technology necessary to make that happen is already here—and it’s ready to do a lot more. Extended reality, or XR, allows us to enter an immersive virtual space so we can visualize information and explore environments with unprecedented vividness and immediacy. While it’s best known for use in games and entertainment, it supports a long and growing number of practical applications, from learning to manufacturing to healthcare. All told, the fast-growing XR market is expected to top $77 billion by 2025.

How it works

The term XR actually embraces three different approaches. There’s virtual reality, (VR) where users don goggles that relay a slightly different video feed to each eye, creating a 3D effect. Then there’s augmented reality, (AR) where users see virtual objects overlaid on top of real-world imagery; and mixed reality, (MR) which uses algorithms to blend digital illusions with the real-world environment. (Imagine a virtual mouse disappearing under a real-world table and emerging on the other side.) The latter two, AR and MR, can be experienced through glasses, goggles, or via smartphone apps—the breakthrough example of the latter being Pokemon Go, which in 2016 briefly sent a wave of users scrambling in a real-world scavenger hunt to “catch them all.” 

The a-ha moment

An early progenitor of the VR headset was built in the 1960s by engineers from the Philco Corporation. The device incorporated a video screen for each eye and included a tracking system connected to a camera. It wasn’t until the ‘90s that computer technology had progressed to create high-resolution graphics and display them in a consumer headset. But these early efforts suffered chunky graphics and headache-inducing lag. Not until the 2010s did headsets become available with software that eliminated optical distortion and low-persistence screens to reduce blurring. Even as gear improved, consumers were reluctant to be seen in public wearing bulky XR headgear. (Remember Google Glass?) But as technology has improved, headsets have gotten lighter, the PC engines driving them have gotten more mobile, and visuals are less migraine-inducing. User adoption is on the rise and XR applications are proliferating, but there’s still plenty of room to grow. Steam reports that while the number of users with VR headsets on its site has doubled in two years, they still only account for 2% of gamers on the platform. 

What is it used for now

XR is often used not as the primary focus of software but as a bonus feature to spice it up. Do a search for an animal like a shark or a tiger on your smartphone, for instance, and you can see an animated AR rendering that seems to put the creature right there in the room with you. Or visit a furniture retailer’s app and use AR to visualize what a virtual desk or bookcase will look like inside your real-life room before you buy.

While most consumers will find some popular gaming titles are now available in VR, the business world is eyeing commercial applications, such as training and procedural skills. By putting trainees inside a realistic virtual setting, XR can immerse them in experiences that would otherwise be too dangerous or expensive to reproduce for practice. HP is deploying its VR and AR technology in industries as varied as manufacturing, public speaking, and for research on veterans suffering from PTSD.

How it might change the world 

Tech-watchers expect to see fast growth and a host of imaginative applications for XR as it goes mainstream from retail stores to the factory floor to healthcare to travel and entertainment. With AR, brick-and-mortar stores could offer shoppers a path “painted” on the floor to guide them to the items they want; while in VR, doctors will carry out virtual house calls and make diagnoses. Soon switching back and forth to make purchases or interact with friends in places that only exist digitally will feel familiar and comfortable, as more real-time 3D compute in a much smaller volume becomes possible. In 10 years, XR might be so widespread, so seamless, and so immersive that we'll be able to do almost everything we can do in real life in a realistically-rendered virtual one, even if it doesn’t exist in the physical world. 

HOW WILL WE SHOP IN METAVERSE?

Everyone from Walmart (filing trademarks for NFTs, creating its own cryptocurrency) to Gucci (opening a virtual multi-store in Roblox) has been trying to imagine what the metaverse will look like. Brands that get it right will bring digital wallets, gaming, and mixed realities together, along with digital storytelling and new forms of engagement — a kind of 360-degree retail.

Brands are banking on the metaverse as the platform that will leave digital catalogs (even that well-used Amazon app) in the dust, one not confined by device, medium, or channel. Some are already filling their digital shelves with products that will get your crypto wallet twitching. They’re developing creative and interactive experiences where the pixelated sky’s the limit.

Why? To excite the next generation, already buried in their smartphones and video games, about shopping for goods, services, and even real estate in an entirely new way. You’ll access and immerse yourself in this world with lightweight, affordable VR and AR headsets, a voice assistant obeying your every command. Our real-life and digital selves merge into one representation, and our avatars become us—a so-called phygital, along with data on our tastes and preferences. Brands will tap into this, merging the virtual and digital worlds into a seamless shopping experience.

What does retail look like in the metaverse? Here’s our guide to how we might shop ’til we drop in the future.

Meta mall

Visit app stores or digital marketplaces in virtual space. Drop into awe-inspiring digital hangouts to see concerts, entertainment, and fashion shows. Be enticed by storefronts and personalized offers. Browse with friends away from crowded physical malls.

Virtual real estate

Retailers buy prime digital plots in the metaverse. The “land” will be used to develop metaverse commerce projects or fully immersive digital shopping centers. Republic Realm, a metaverse real estate firm, recently paid Sandbox $4.3 million for a plot of virtual land, the largest public virtual real-estate deal ever.

Decentralized commerce

So-called d-commerce allows metaverse transactions to happen peer-to-peer, just like in the real world, without relying on a centralized intermediary. It will allow communities to evolve new experiences and pop-ups, while people will be able to create new value, enabled by smart contracts.

Gaming

Gaming is now a major sales platform for retailers where real-world and digital goods are bought, gifted, and exchanged. In 2020, around $54 billion was spent on virtual goods, skins, and lives.

Virtual clothing

The possibilities are truly limitless for new fashions. Think exclusive or even one-of-a-kind digital clothes, shoes, makeup, and accessories. Trends are sparked by virtual fads, and all products are verified using NFTs.

Digital workers and salespeople

Salespeople that are created using AI will interact with real-life virtual versions of ourselves. Businesses will fill the metaverse with a digital workforce that humans will converse with.

Influencer avatars

The digital doppelgängers of stars and social media influencers guide shoppers around stores, encouraging them to try out products that they use or recommend, or are simply branded with their faces.

Livestreamed shopping assistants

Expect real-life expertise on retail in the virtual world, where human-assistants-as-avatars offer advice on your real-world wardrobe, give out discount coupons, and inform shoppers of the latest sale. They also push personalized content to customers who then purchase a physical outfit. The metaverse knows your measurements, body shape, and preferences.

Book a vacation

With a virtual travel agency, you can ski the mountain, tour your resort or hotel room before you book, sit in different rows on the plane, and get a preview of what you’ll see on a cruise or safari. Then have the avatar agent help you choose destinations and book flights and accommodations.

Paying for goods

Seamlessly connect your real-life bank account to your digital avatar. Use biometrics to authenticate that it’s physically you. Click to make payments using open banking.

Virtual purchase, physical product

View a piece of digital art on the wall of your virtual home, or test out a digital tennis racket. See what it looks like, buy it online. It turns up on your actual doorstep, ready to hang on your wall or take to the court.

WHAT IS QUANTUM COMPUTING?

Computer science is about to make a quantum leap. Thanks to a radically different kind of architecture, computers of the future will be able to carry out feats that are impossible on today’s machines. The technology is called quantum computing, and while it’s a little hard to wrap your head around how it works, experts say it could transform information technology in a profound way by enabling new forms of computation, such as rapidly cracking unbreakable codes, modeling drug interactions at the molecular level, and modeling complex investments. In the decades ahead it could become a $1 trillion industry, and some heavyweights are already planning to take their share, including Microsoft, Google, IBM, and Honeywell. China, too, wants a place at the table, and has reportedly committed billions to developing its own applications.

How it works

Today’s digital processors make calculations and store data using electronic bits that are either 1 or 0. But with quantum computing, there’s another possibility. Back in the 1920s, physicists realized that particles like electrons or protons can exist in a condition called “superposition,” where they can exist in multiple states. Whereas a toy top, for example, can spin in one direction or the other, an electron can potentially do both at the same time. A quantum bit (or “qubit”) takes advantage of that principle so can be both a 1 and a 0 simultaneously. What’s more, two or more particles could be “entangled” so that their states were related to one another, so that observing one would instantly identify the state of the other, no matter how far away. (Einstein was famously flummoxed by this idea, calling it “spooky action at a distance.”) Together superposition and entanglement allow qubits to carry out an entirely new type of computation. Because they operate on very different principles than conventional computers, you compare their performance by the speed with which they solve problems. In certain repetitive tasks, today’s quantum computers are already more than a 100 million times faster than the world’s most powerful supercomputer.

The a-ha moment

The challenge has been to make a machine that can take advantage of quantum mechanics. Because these properties are very small scales, and superposition is extremely fragile, it wasn’t until 1998 that scientists were able to make a functioning quantum computer (with just two qubits). Today, researchers are racing to build machines that incorporate ever greater numbers of qubits. The largest currently in existence has 127, but plans are already afoot for room-sized quantum computers made of up one million qubits.

What it means for everyday life

Theorists believe that quantum computers will be able to swiftly carry out certain kinds of calculations that would take billions of years on a conventional computer. Demonstrating practical applications for that will take a little time, though. For now, quantum computers are bulky, expensive, and very limited in the number of qubits that can be coherently operated together. But research dollars continue to flow, quantum computing will inevitably become commonplace.

How it might change the world

One of the tasks that’s impossible for today’s computers, but easy for quantum computers, is figuring out what numbers you need to multiply together in order to make any given really big number, a process called prime factorization. This matters because factorization is what underlies digital cryptography. Once quantum computing arrives in force, today’s secure encryption techniques for communications are toast. So is bitcoin. (The National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on post-quantum encryption algorithms.)

On the other hand, quantum mechanics will make it much easier for scientists to model the way that large molecules assemble themselves in three dimensions. Since this is crucial to the functioning of molecules like proteins, quantum computing could usher in a golden age of rapid medical innovation and testing.

Another exciting frontier will be quantum artificial intelligence. As a machine learning algorithm is trained, it sifts through vast amounts of data, so a quantum computer’s ability to process multiple possibilities at once might allow it to reach unprecedented levels of performance.

And that’s just for starters. Quantum information science could well be one of those technologies that’s so radically different that we might not be able to appreciate its impact until it’s ubiquitous enough for anyone to innovate with its powers. After all, if even Einstein called it weird science, it’s bound to have a few surprises in store.

7 TIPS TO RECESSION-PROOF YOUR BUSINESS, FROM LEADERS WHO HAVE BEEN THERE

Nearly all of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. In June, the U.S. added 372,000 jobs, beating expectations, and the unemployment rate remained cemented at 3.6 percent -- the lowest in more than 50 years -- according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. 

Despite the buoyant labor market, the overall economic mood feels increasingly pessimistic. No business owner wants to hear the "r" word. But depending on whom you ask, the country could be talking itself into a recession, or we could already be in one.

Wells Fargo argues that this latest jobs report should squash the conversation about whether the U.S. economy is in a recession -- but not everyone shares that confidence. A group of forecasters surveyed by the Wall Street Journal put the odds of a downturn over the next year at 44 percent, up from 28 percent in April. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon upgraded his metaphorical concerns from storm clouds to, yes, a full-blown hurricane. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell echoed the unease. When he testified before Congress last month, Powell stressed that the central bank is "not trying to provoke" a recession with its rate-hiking campaign to rein in inflation. Then he admitted that an unintended recession was "certainly a possibility." Helpful. 

If you're a small-business owner, best to leave the debates to the economists -- you need to prepare as if a downturn is a certainty. Because, like coastal homeowners who know to gather plywood for the windows and sandbags at the beginning of hurricane season, you'll want to shore up your company's chance of survival by recession-proofing before the turbulence hits. What to do? At Inc., we believe the best source of advice is founders who've been through it. So we reached out to a number of them, including leaders running companies that made Inc.'s 2022 Best Workplaces list, to learn how they plan to avoid becoming a statistic should the economy slump.

If the economy does enter a contraction -- which would be declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research -- many founders will be experiencing a recession for the first time as a business owner. The last official downturn lasted from December 2007 until June 2009, and that financial crisis hit small businesses disproportionally hard. Plagued by heightened credit constraints and sensitivity to consumer demand, small businesses, despite their relatively small payrolls, accounted for 62 percent of jobs lost between 2008 and 2009.

So it's worth remembering that your company's survival is crucial not only to your own livelihood, employees, and customers, but to the economy as a whole. Small businesses account for over 45 percent of GDP, and as conditions rebound, small and new businesses provide the primary fuel for recovery with faster growth and job creation. 

To make sure you're still around for that eventual expansion, we pulled together a list of seven precautionary measures you can take, based on hard-earned experience from the founders we interviewed. You'll also hear about their plans to navigate the turmoil if the storm makes landfall. 

1. Listen to employees and customers

You cannot stop the business cycle from shifting, but you can give yourself enough time to get ready. All American Entertainment CEO and founder Greg Friedlander gauges current conditions and future expectations by listening to the most anecdotal of data sources: his clients and employees.

"With rare exceptions, a recession is not something that should ever catch a company off guard," says Friedlander, who started his Durham, North Carolina-based speakers bureau in 2002 and made Inc.'s list of Best Workplaces 2022. All American's clients include Fortune 500 companies and universities. "If you are in regular communication with your customers and you're asking the right questions about what they're seeing in their business, you get real-time insights into where things are headed," he says.

To keep a pulse on local economic conditions, from inflation to the housing market, it also helps to pay attention to the conversations among your own team, says Friedlander.

2. Use the pandemic as a case study

Many founders don't have first-hand experience from the 2008 financial crisis to guide them because they weren't operating then (the median age of a small business is less than 10 years). But the pandemic should be a good proxy, according to Jennifer Glanville, director of partnerships and collaborations at the Boston Beer Company, the brewer behind Samuel Adams.

Glanville manages the company's entrepreneurship program, Brewing the American Dream, which offers access to capital, coaching, and networking for small businesses in the food and beverage industry. After two and a half years of Covid-19 closures, supply chain disruptions, and staffing shortages, the business owners that Glanville works with feel ready to confront a potential recession. "They've been prepared," she says. "Everything that's happened has prepared them for the next hurdle."

Christina Stembel, who founded Oakland, California-based online flower delivery company Farmgirl Flowers in 2010, plans to use the same playbook. When Covid-19 cases started rising, she learned that the worst-case scenario was worse than anything she ever anticipated. Her most important takeaway: embrace conservative accounting and prioritize profit over growth.

"Prior to the pandemic, I was laser focused on getting Farmgirl as big as I could as quickly as I could," says Stembel, whose company grew 161 percent over the last two years. "As a bootstrapped company, we don't have a safety net," she adds. "While big numbers and big reporting certainly look good, it also means big losses when -- not if -- things go wrong."

3. Don't rush layoffs

Staffing back up, particularly in this labor market, will not be easy, so make layoffs your last resort, says Friedlander. When the events industry came to a halt during the pandemic, the All American Entertainment founder watched competitors make major staffing cuts, but he decided he had invested too much in building his team to lay anyone off. "We knew that things were going to come back," he says. "It was just a matter of time." 

When the sector rebounded with remote events and eventually in-person experiences, Friedlander's fully-staffed, experienced workforce proved to be a competitive advantage. His team was able to meet demand and wasn't forced to leave money on the table.

"Our competitors focused on live events laid off 50 percent of their staff," says Friedlander. "When they were ready to hire back, a lot of those people had moved on to other industries or had better jobs."

4. Defer funding

"If you do not need to raise money, do not raise money," says Vinicius Vacanti, the co-founder and CEO of YipitData, which provides alternative data and analysis for investment funds and large corporations. "That's my No. 1 piece of advice to entrepreneurs right now."

Vacanti, who started the New York-based data provider in 2014 and completed a series E funding round in December, recommends taking whatever steps are necessary to extend the runway until conditions improve. "This is the absolute worst time to try to go out and raise a round of funding."

5. Become indispensable

During any downturn, customers will be looking to cut costs. To avoid becoming another line item that can be subtracted from their budget, Vacanti advises founders to find ways to make their product essential. "That may mean adjusting your product based on the changing environment," he adds.

When the pandemic ushered in a wave of uncertainty and market volatility, YipitData expedited their research publishing schedule from monthly to weekly. When rising prices became a top concern, the company developed its own inflation tracker, which came out before the official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Those pivots require urgency. "Weeks matter," says Vacanti, whose company is an Inc. Best Workplaces 2022 honoree. "You need to act very quickly. Your customers are going to look to whoever it is that's going to be solving their new problems."

Another way to become indispensable is to strengthen your existing customer relationships. More than just providing value, Friedlander says it becomes even more important during a downturn to document that value for clients.

"In any type of uncertainty, you're going to close your wallet," he says. "You're not going to spend money unless it's clear that you're getting a return and you can justify that expense."

Friedlander recommends collecting data and compiling case studies. Initially, All American Entertainment confronted skepticism about virtual events from clients. Bolstering their pitch with concrete numbers and examples, he says, made people more comfortable investing in the concept.

6. Maintain perspective

While you need to be prepared for a potential downturn, the founders that Inc. spoke with also advise keeping a sense of perspective.

If the economy does contract within the next 12 months, it could be the most viral recession business owners have ever experienced. In 2008, the Motorola Razr dominated the cell-phone market; MySpace boasted the most users among social-media sites; Twitter was only a year old; and Facebook had yet to introduce the Like button. This year, the economy has only endured a single quarter of negative GDP growth, but #recession and #recessionproof have already garnered nearly 250 million views on TikTok.

"It's hard to watch, listen, or open an app and not see at least a few mentions about interest rates and indications of if or when this [recession] will kick off," says Farmgirl Flowers founder Christina Stembel. Who's to say whether the potential recession will be bigger and badder than the last? "With far more communication about it, that can make it seem scarier," Stembel adds. Her advice? Put down your phone.

Keep decision making anchored in the long-term, Friedlander suggests. "There are cycles, but everything is going to end," he says. "If you're too focused on that short term, it very well will hurt you in the long term when things do recover."

7. Stay entrepreneurial

In the meantime, concentrate on what you can control. Approach the recession like any disruption. "It's an opportunity for you to find new ways to provide value, new revenue streams, new business lines," says Friedlander.

Despite the gloomy economic forecast, Jennifer Glanville of Brewing the American Dream remains optimistic about the overall climate for entrepreneurs. She predicts the next downturn -- whenever it comes -- will generate plenty of success stories because of one crucial difference from 2008. After the pandemic, customer support is much stronger than it was 14 years ago.

"America as a whole is more hyper-aware of small businesses and the need to support them," says Glanville. "That's very helpful."