The Rise of Tesla’s Optimus: How AI Robots Could Reshape Manufacturing

In a bipartisan event designed to showcase U.S. manufacturing prowess on Capitol Hill, two Tesla Optimus humanoid robots seem to have stolen the show on Wednesday. Fox News described a scene where attendees were “crowding the machines as they struck various poses.” Speaking at the event, House select committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar, R-Mich., was particularly struck, he said, by the “amazing technology” on display, and how “a lot of the same technology that’s in a vehicle is used in these humanoid robots.” Moolenaar’s comments come as automaker Tesla remains in the spotlight thanks to its CEO Elon Musk’s controversial role in the Trump White House, and also as reports say the company is “leading the trend” of deploying humanoid robots in auto plants. All this leads to the big question: if robots really prove to have advantages over human workers in many manual work settings like factory floors, are the days of seeing people working in these environments truly numbered? Industry news outlet Digitimes reported that “since the second half of 2024” at least, Tesla has “increasingly emphasized AI as the core driver of its business strategy for the coming years.” The EV maker is intent on “commercializing autonomous driving software and humanoid robots.” This chimes with many previous reports concerning Musk’s interest in AI tech (via his xAI startup, chatbot “Grok” built into X, and AI’s role in self-driving Tesla cars and “robotaxis”) and with Musk’s own frequent, sometime grandiose pronouncements that Tesla’s future is really in robotics, not EVs. Humanoid robots may be a trillion-dollar market, Musk has previously said, and in mid-2024 he promised that Tesla’s Optimus robots would be used in its offices this year, with low production numbers. He expanded on that intial vow and said in 2026 high production levels would mean the robots could be sold to other companies. But Digitimes’ contention that Tesla is now leading the charge in deploying humanoid robots actually on the factory floor suggests this timeline has now been accelerated. This resonates with a few statements from Musk made mere weeks ago at an investors’ earnings call. Musk said then that the plan was now to build 10,000 Optimus machines this year. He admitted it was ambitious, but when asked about this he said “will those several thousand Optimus robots be doing useful things by the end of the year? Yes, I’m confident they will do useful things.” At the U.S. manufacturing showcase in Washington, D.C., Rep Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., a member of the House select committee on China, said that he imagined the robots would have “unbelievable applications,” Fox noted. Beyond car making, Gimenez suggested “maybe in agriculture,” because a “lot of our farmers are going out of business, can’t compete labor-wise,” but if you “get a couple of robots that can actually do very detailed farm work and drive the labor costs down, we’ll save the American farmer.” But the meeting went beyond a choreographed robot demo and veered into policy lobbying. The Associated Press reported that robot companies at the event, including Tesla, used the opportunity to push lawmakers to develop a national strategy to boost U.S. makers in an international race to develop transformational AI-powered robot tech, mainly in competition with China. But if Musk’s promise to build millions of Tesla humanoid robots comes true, or rival firms like Figure achieve success with their own humanoid machines, are we talking about a similar issue facing computer programmers at the moment, i.e. “will AI steal workers’ jobs?” It’s tricky, and the truth is nobody knows. One Reddit thread on the matter saw a commenter point out the impressive advances in robotics by companies like Tesla, and wonder “do you really think we’ll see these robots replacing human workers on [construction industry] job sites in the near future? I mean, they could handle the dangerous and repetitive tasks that come with the job, but what does that mean for us?” The replies were mainly in the negative, with one person noting “Building construction is way too unpredictable and open-ended to do with robots, no matter how many AI buzzwords you fit in,” and another saying simply “No.” But one commenter said “Yes, humanoid robots will likely replace humans in nearly every job they currently do…. eventually. Whether that time span is going to be 2 years or 200 remains to be seen.” Humanoid robots on the factory floor would have some obvious benefits. They could work 24-7-365, they don’t need vacations and wouldn’t go on strike, and the “days since last injury” ticker on the factory wall would just tick upwards forever. But the potential loss of wages for real humans is more problematic, from a social and political point of view. Jeff Cardenas, co-founder and CEO of the Texas-based humanoid robot startup Apptronik, spoke about the complexities of a robot transformation in Washington. Cardenas told the news service he sees humanoids as “having roles both practically and in capturing the imagination of the public” for robot tech, and he thinks a national strategy would promote the “education of a new generation of robotics engineers and scientists.” So, robots may well steal some people’s jobs, and soon, but that could mean other people will get jobs in designing and repairing the robots themselves. BY KIT EATON @KITEATON