This week I heard a radio interview with a "Futurist" named
Burris. I'm not sure how to spell his name, but his main
point has echoed in my mind ever since. He noted that we
don't need a crystal ball or special powers to predict the
future if we have the courage to track, and the skill to
read, a few key trends.
He noted that "human beings tend, or trend, to gain weight.
If you've gained a pound a year for several years, it's not
difficult to predict your future waistline." He also noted
that there are trends in birth rates, and the population is
"trending" to live longer. Most things in life change along
observable and predictable trend-lines.
Coincidentally, I recently talked with a friend about how
reluctant many of us are to track the key data-points in
our lives. Years ago, the famed management expert, Edward
Demming, noted, "What gets measured, gets done." Most of us
know how true this is, even in our own lives. When we track
our exercise or savings, or pretty much anything else, and
put the graph where we will see it everyday, things
improve. When we "wish" or "hope" or "try" to change
things, but refuse to document the data, our results seldom
live up to our desires.
"What gets measured, get's done."
And when the graph begins to show a trend--either upward or
downward--we begin to predict the future.
If month by month, a graph of your savings shows a steady
upward climb, you can pretty much predict your future
wealth. Unfortunately, this is also true if the graph shows
a slow but steady decline, and that's why few people have
the courage to track the data.
The "truth of the trend" applies to just about anything we
can measure. It applies to our blood pressure, our weight,
and exercise; it applies to family time, reading time, and
it applies to sales, profits, and broad economic patterns
like home ownership, employment or inflation. Unless
something unexpected happens, we can expect trends to
continue and give us a preview of our own future.
This gives us incredible power. By tracking our results
over time, we can see what works, and what doesn't. We gain
insight to our values and priorities. For example, most of
us say we value time as a family, but many studies show
most parents spend only a few minutes a day with their
children. If that trend applies in your home, and if it
continues, where would you predict it to lead?
If there are things you want to increase or build in your
life, begin by tracking the data. How much time, precisely,
do you currently spend on sales or exercise, or talking
with your spouse? If you track it, and if the trend is
moving in the direction you desire, I would predict a
satisfying result. But, if the trend is in the wrong
direction, I suggest you either change your goals or your
behavior, or that you make plans for a bumpy landing.
This is an incredibly powerful concept. Applied to the
"big" things in life, it gives us amazing insight to
society and culture. Charles Murray has tracked trends in
income distribution, education, and even the neighborhoods
where groups of people live, down to their zip code. Trends
give us insight to the growth of government, the cost of
health care or education, and the aging of the population.
On a personal level it also applies to anything you want
more of, or less of in your life. Want more time for your
hobbies? Watch the trend. Want more income or more savings?
Watch the trend. Or, if you want the ever-popular "more and
better sex," watch the trend!
Over my years as a coach, I've observed that "direction and
momentum are more important than goals." That's another way
of saying that the trend is a more powerful predictor of
the future than our wishes, hopes or desires. A goal is a
picture linked to our emotions, but by itself, it is static
and has little predictive value. A trend, however, is
dynamic and is always moving us in a specific direction.
Study the trend and you control your future.
Burris. I'm not sure how to spell his name, but his main
point has echoed in my mind ever since. He noted that we
don't need a crystal ball or special powers to predict the
future if we have the courage to track, and the skill to
read, a few key trends.
He noted that "human beings tend, or trend, to gain weight.
If you've gained a pound a year for several years, it's not
difficult to predict your future waistline." He also noted
that there are trends in birth rates, and the population is
"trending" to live longer. Most things in life change along
observable and predictable trend-lines.
Coincidentally, I recently talked with a friend about how
reluctant many of us are to track the key data-points in
our lives. Years ago, the famed management expert, Edward
Demming, noted, "What gets measured, gets done." Most of us
know how true this is, even in our own lives. When we track
our exercise or savings, or pretty much anything else, and
put the graph where we will see it everyday, things
improve. When we "wish" or "hope" or "try" to change
things, but refuse to document the data, our results seldom
live up to our desires.
"What gets measured, get's done."
And when the graph begins to show a trend--either upward or
downward--we begin to predict the future.
If month by month, a graph of your savings shows a steady
upward climb, you can pretty much predict your future
wealth. Unfortunately, this is also true if the graph shows
a slow but steady decline, and that's why few people have
the courage to track the data.
The "truth of the trend" applies to just about anything we
can measure. It applies to our blood pressure, our weight,
and exercise; it applies to family time, reading time, and
it applies to sales, profits, and broad economic patterns
like home ownership, employment or inflation. Unless
something unexpected happens, we can expect trends to
continue and give us a preview of our own future.
This gives us incredible power. By tracking our results
over time, we can see what works, and what doesn't. We gain
insight to our values and priorities. For example, most of
us say we value time as a family, but many studies show
most parents spend only a few minutes a day with their
children. If that trend applies in your home, and if it
continues, where would you predict it to lead?
If there are things you want to increase or build in your
life, begin by tracking the data. How much time, precisely,
do you currently spend on sales or exercise, or talking
with your spouse? If you track it, and if the trend is
moving in the direction you desire, I would predict a
satisfying result. But, if the trend is in the wrong
direction, I suggest you either change your goals or your
behavior, or that you make plans for a bumpy landing.
This is an incredibly powerful concept. Applied to the
"big" things in life, it gives us amazing insight to
society and culture. Charles Murray has tracked trends in
income distribution, education, and even the neighborhoods
where groups of people live, down to their zip code. Trends
give us insight to the growth of government, the cost of
health care or education, and the aging of the population.
On a personal level it also applies to anything you want
more of, or less of in your life. Want more time for your
hobbies? Watch the trend. Want more income or more savings?
Watch the trend. Or, if you want the ever-popular "more and
better sex," watch the trend!
Over my years as a coach, I've observed that "direction and
momentum are more important than goals." That's another way
of saying that the trend is a more powerful predictor of
the future than our wishes, hopes or desires. A goal is a
picture linked to our emotions, but by itself, it is static
and has little predictive value. A trend, however, is
dynamic and is always moving us in a specific direction.
Study the trend and you control your future.
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