I’m writing this on a cold, wet evening. The cloud has hidden the setting sun
and it’s dreary, damp, and dark. I can see some colored Christmas lights across
the way, but right now, the cold, dark cloud feels like the very definition of
"winter."
For many of us, 2019 has been a difficult year and this afternoon seems like a metaphor of that. In business, the recession has taken a toll and new regulations, new taxes and new health care legislation (in the U.S.) create anxiety and uncertainty. In our personal lives, many are anxious about their investments and their retirement. Millions have lost their homes this year (that still seems incredible!) and millions more are unemployed.
It becomes easy to see this as a dark, cold, dreary time. Intellectually, we know the Solstice has come and in the Northern Hemisphere, the days will soon get longer, sunnier and warmer. We know that spring is scheduled in a few months. But today is dark. Depression threatens.
The contrast between the hope of our religious festivals and the anxiety when we consider our balance sheets, our bank accounts or our checkbooks is palpable. Today, even more than most days, we have to make a choice, and the choice is very clear.
We can look at what “is” and worry. There are powerful, reasonable arguments to be afraid (be very afraid!) and to hunker down. From global warming to political uncertainty to economic difficulty, smart people all over the world are on the defensive. When the “best and the brightest” among us see doom and gloom and uncertainty, who wouldn’t worry? It’s a reasonable thing to do and I can’t blame anyone for focusing on the difficulties ahead.
But others see the coming of spring. Others see the start of a New Year with its endless possibilities. Our language is full of clichés that remind us it’s “always darkest before the dawn.” We know that the most successful investors have always been contrarians who sell when everyone else is euphoric at the top of the bubble, and buy when the world is full of pessimists, doom and gloom.
Real estate investors buying real estate all year long, and they are no dummy. At fire-sale prices, they figure the future hold great promise. They remind me of one of my favorite stories about investing. J. Paul Getty, once the richest man in the world, said that the way to get rich was to “be real nice. When people want to sell, be a gentleman and take it off their hands. When they’re desperate to buy, be real nice and sell it to them!”
In the days and weeks ahead, you have a choice to make. You can believe your eyes and ears, and be worried. You can read the papers and listen to the news of gloom and doom. You can look outside and see only darkness and fog, and respond accordingly. That’s what most people do, and it makes sense. As I said, I can’t blame anyone for that.
But, you can also believe that after the darkness, the sun comes up almost every morning. You can believe that after the winter, spring arrives every April or May. You can choose to believe the fog will lift and things will be brighter in the morning.
My own suggestion is that this is a good time to buy sunglasses and stock up on sunscreen. My own preference is put on the snow tires, and buy skies and a warm jacket to enjoy the winter, while it lasts. Then, when warm weather and optimism return, I’ll be the first one on the beach!
The choice is yours. Believe your eyes and ears and hunker down. Or, as the song said, you can be a “cockeyed optimist” and prepare for spring. For myself, and from where I sit, “all the world’s a beach.” Choose wisely. Be prepared. Make 2020 a GREAT year!
For many of us, 2019 has been a difficult year and this afternoon seems like a metaphor of that. In business, the recession has taken a toll and new regulations, new taxes and new health care legislation (in the U.S.) create anxiety and uncertainty. In our personal lives, many are anxious about their investments and their retirement. Millions have lost their homes this year (that still seems incredible!) and millions more are unemployed.
It becomes easy to see this as a dark, cold, dreary time. Intellectually, we know the Solstice has come and in the Northern Hemisphere, the days will soon get longer, sunnier and warmer. We know that spring is scheduled in a few months. But today is dark. Depression threatens.
The contrast between the hope of our religious festivals and the anxiety when we consider our balance sheets, our bank accounts or our checkbooks is palpable. Today, even more than most days, we have to make a choice, and the choice is very clear.
We can look at what “is” and worry. There are powerful, reasonable arguments to be afraid (be very afraid!) and to hunker down. From global warming to political uncertainty to economic difficulty, smart people all over the world are on the defensive. When the “best and the brightest” among us see doom and gloom and uncertainty, who wouldn’t worry? It’s a reasonable thing to do and I can’t blame anyone for focusing on the difficulties ahead.
But others see the coming of spring. Others see the start of a New Year with its endless possibilities. Our language is full of clichés that remind us it’s “always darkest before the dawn.” We know that the most successful investors have always been contrarians who sell when everyone else is euphoric at the top of the bubble, and buy when the world is full of pessimists, doom and gloom.
Real estate investors buying real estate all year long, and they are no dummy. At fire-sale prices, they figure the future hold great promise. They remind me of one of my favorite stories about investing. J. Paul Getty, once the richest man in the world, said that the way to get rich was to “be real nice. When people want to sell, be a gentleman and take it off their hands. When they’re desperate to buy, be real nice and sell it to them!”
In the days and weeks ahead, you have a choice to make. You can believe your eyes and ears, and be worried. You can read the papers and listen to the news of gloom and doom. You can look outside and see only darkness and fog, and respond accordingly. That’s what most people do, and it makes sense. As I said, I can’t blame anyone for that.
But, you can also believe that after the darkness, the sun comes up almost every morning. You can believe that after the winter, spring arrives every April or May. You can choose to believe the fog will lift and things will be brighter in the morning.
My own suggestion is that this is a good time to buy sunglasses and stock up on sunscreen. My own preference is put on the snow tires, and buy skies and a warm jacket to enjoy the winter, while it lasts. Then, when warm weather and optimism return, I’ll be the first one on the beach!
The choice is yours. Believe your eyes and ears and hunker down. Or, as the song said, you can be a “cockeyed optimist” and prepare for spring. For myself, and from where I sit, “all the world’s a beach.” Choose wisely. Be prepared. Make 2020 a GREAT year!
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